Trade evaluator Beta

MARKET is FantasyCalc (https://api.fantasycalc.com), asked for in this league's shape — 0.5 PPR, 14 teams. Its numbers come from trades actually executed in Sleeper leagues, so they are market behavior rather than one analyst's ranking. 197 players, fetched Oct 29, 14:10. It carries no kickers or defenses, and stops around the top 200 — those rows read n/a.

LEAGUE is computed here, and covers everyone. Sleeper's projections API supplies projected raw stats per player per week; those are scored under your rules, bonuses included, which is the part no market value can see. Only the weeks still to be played are counted — from this week to week 17 — because a trade is about games to come, not ones already banked. Points are then taken above replacement, because a defense projected for 110 points is the best in the league while a receiver projected for 110 is waiver fodder. Replacement is the last player the league actually starts at that position, counted from live lineups rather than assumed from the rules — the flex does not split the way the rules imply, going to receivers ten to four here, so 38 receivers start against 32 backs. Defenses and kickers are the exception: nobody carries a spare, they get swapped weekly for a matchup, so theirs is the best of the free pool instead of the last one started. Finally that figure is mapped onto the market's own scale by rank, fitted on the 197 players who have both, so the two columns are in the same units and can be compared directly.

Where LEAGUE is weakest. A projection is an average, and the yardage bonuses are per-game thresholds, so a back projected for 82 yards a game never trips the 100-yard bonus here even though he will several times in reality — bonus points are undercounted, most for high-variance players. Defenses still come out above what the market pays — above replacement they are genuinely worth it, but the model cannot see how unpredictable they are week to week, which is much of why nobody trades for them. Quarterbacks come out well below the market, which is what points above replacement always says about a one-QB league. 4th down stops and extra-point returns are not projected at all.

POINTS TO THE BEST LINEUP is the one number here that knows which roster the player is landing on. The two value columns do not: value is measured against a league-wide replacement level, so a tight end prices the same whether he starts for you or sits behind one you already have. This asks a narrower question — what is the highest-scoring legal lineup this roster can field now, and what is it after the trade — and shows the difference. A second tight end in a one-tight-end league reaches a lineup only through the flex, and often gains you nothing at all; the same player on a roster thin at the position can be worth thirty points. Both sides are computed the same way, and the two are independent.

Both sides can gain, and that is not a bug. A trade that looks lopsided by value will sometimes show a gain for both teams. That is usually correct rather than broken: if you are deep at back and thin at receiver and the other manager is the reverse, the surplus each of you is sitting on scores nothing on the bench, and moving it into the other's starting lineup genuinely creates points on both sides. It is the ordinary reason trades happen at all. It does mean this number cannot be read as a verdict on fairness — a manager can gain points and still have given up the better asset, which is exactly what the MARKET and LEAGUE columns are for. Read the three together. And be suspicious of a very large gain on one side only: that is more often a hole in the projections than a steal.

What it cannot see. It is a rest-of-season total for one best lineup, so it flattens the week-to-week reality the season is actually played in — bye weeks, injuries, and the matchup-by-matchup churn that make depth you rarely start worth something anyway. Trade away the third back who covers your starter's bye and this number will not charge you for it. It also assumes you set the optimal lineup every week, which nobody does.

This is a beta. The numbers move as the formula gets tuned, and it has already changed more than once this week — how replacement level is measured, whether defenses are streamed, how the two scales are matched. Treat it as an argument, not a verdict: it is a starting point for a conversation with the manager on the other side, not an authority to settle one. If a number looks wrong to you it may well be, and saying so is how it gets better.

When the two disagree, that is the useful part, and it is why nothing here declares a winner. PAR beside each player is projected points above replacement for the rest of the season, and is what drives its LEAGUE number.